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Why Finlandization is happening in Taiwan?

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  • Why Finlandization is happening in Taiwan?

    I've seen many blogs here on ACG, people thinks that if China and US starts to shoot each other, Taiwan would be on the US side. I beg to differ. It would just be like US, depends on who is in the Presidential Palace. If KMT (Nationalists), then I doubt it. But if it DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) maybe.

    Just today, news came from Singapore; a Taiwanese Fishing boats (Sheng Te Tsai and Lien I Hsing No. 116) were fire on (allegedly) by Indonesian Official boat.

    http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/n...hots-fired.htm

    It is these types of incidents will spark nationalism in Taiwan and make them more susceptible to "Finlandization" to PRC. In 2013, Taiwanese fishing boat was shot by the Filipino Coast Guard and fishing boat captain was killed.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_G...o._28_incident

    Depends on how Indonesia Officials handle this incident. If not properly handled, Taiwanese New Media could demand another militarization as they did in 2013. Taiwanese President Ma Yin Jeou was criticized for not acting swiftly. President Ma contacted Washington, and only response after three days was "both party should act peacefully". No condemnation of the shooting from Washington. President Ma finally deployed ROC Navy ships and Air Force F16 and Mirage jets in show of force to protect Taiwanese fishing ships.

    To be fair, Filipino President later did sent a personal envoy, apologized to the family of the fishing boat captain; and paid reparation. However, it was only after Taiwanese Government was about to close guest worker program to Filipino Citizens.

    This incident taught Taiwanese 3 things. Washington doesn't really give it damn about Taiwan Security. In Filipino President's eye, Taiwan was just a province of China. ROC Government is not recognized as a country, so they can be ignored. And US may have the same attitude in South China Sea with respect to Taiwan.

    Only PRC has Blue Water Navy that can protect Taiwanese Interests and Taiwanese Citizens Overseas. I remember back in 1990 when Gulf War started and when Libya and Egypt deteriorated; Taiwanese Government was not able to provide any assistance to their citizens. Only PRC government was able to use their diplomatic and military channels to evacuate Taiwanese Citizens out. All the Taiwan Citizens were transported back to Mainland China, then returned to Taiwan.

    Taiwan has Evergreen Shipping Group and Formosa Plastic who has vast Petrochemical investments all over South Ease Asia, ROC does not have a military force that is able to protect their investments, and PRC is happy to show why Taiwanese Tycoons that PRC is their future. Forget US military support, even condemnation is rare in Taiwanese support.
    Nice is heavy on my mind.
    I pray and wish the best for France.

  • #2
    Originally posted by MSGT MSC USAR View Post
    This incident taught Taiwanese 3 things. Washington doesn't really give it damn about Taiwan Security. In Filipino President's eye, Taiwan was just a province of China. ROC Government is not recognized as a country, so they can be ignored. And US may have the same attitude in South China Sea with respect to Taiwan.

    Only PRC has Blue Water Navy that can protect Taiwanese Interests and Taiwanese Citizens Overseas. I remember back in 1990 when Gulf War started and when Libya and Egypt deteriorated; Taiwanese Government was not able to provide any assistance to their citizens. Only PRC government was able to use their diplomatic and military channels to evacuate Taiwanese Citizens out. All the Taiwan Citizens were transported back to Mainland China, then returned to Taiwan.

    Taiwan has Evergreen Shipping Group and Formosa Plastic who has vast Petrochemical investments all over South Ease Asia, ROC does not have a military force that is able to protect their investments, and PRC is happy to show why Taiwanese Tycoons that PRC is their future. Forget US military support, even condemnation is rare in Taiwanese support.
    Those are interesting conclusions which I don’t see supported anywhere in the articles you posted.

    As for the protection of Republic of China, the RoC Navy does possess the following:

    Four of these:
    1 Four - R.jpg
    Eight of these:
    2 Eight.jpg
    Six of these:
    3 Six.jpg
    Six of these:
    4 Six.jpg
    Four of these:
    5 Four - R.jpg
    Thirty one of these:
    6 Thirty One FACG-74.jpg

    Plus several more auxiliary, command, and support ships.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by PitchRate View Post
      Those are interesting conclusions which I don’t see supported anywhere in the articles you posted.

      As for the protection of Republic of China, the RoC Navy does possess the following:

      Four of these:
      [ATTACH]69413[/ATTACH]
      Eight of these:
      [ATTACH]69414[/ATTACH]
      Six of these:
      [ATTACH]69415[/ATTACH]
      Six of these:
      [ATTACH]69416[/ATTACH]
      Four of these:
      [ATTACH]69417[/ATTACH]
      Thirty one of these:
      [ATTACH]69418[/ATTACH]

      Plus several more auxiliary, command, and support ships.
      I think you are quite right on paper, ROC military should able to handle anything. Afterall it ranks 15th in the world of military strength. On paper, they look like a capable force. You then start wondering it's real power. Higher than Vietnam, Pakistan, and just below Canada. How many engagement have the done since 1960's 2nd Taiwan Strait Crisis? ROC military consists of mostly draftees not a professional soldiers like PRC, all volunteer professional military personnel.

      On paper, Taiwan should able to take on Vietnam? Would you agree with that? I some how doubt it. ROC Military only has one purpose, deter PRC. It has not engage in any exercise with any foreign military forces. PRC had plenty with Russia and Pakistan recently.

      Recent years, with DPP in charge. They've been gutting budgets and also military readiness; as most DPP are not pro military. Most military personnel are KMT members. DPP has criticize ROC military is not a capable force. Many time it seems reluctant engage Vietnam and Philippines when called for. If they are afraid Vietnam and Philippines; people of Taiwan is supposed to believe that they can protect them from in case of PRC invasion?

      ROC Navy has almost never left Taiwan EEZ. PRC has deploy PLN in Africa and in Indian Ocean with bases in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. PLA us also deployed by UN as peacekeeping force. ROC engagement in foreign territory? None.
      Attached Files
      Nice is heavy on my mind.
      I pray and wish the best for France.

      Comment


      • #4
        Well, the Taiwan force seem professional enough. While their land army is conscripted, is the same true of their navy?
        "We have no white flag."

        Comment


        • #5
          So your contention is that the ROC has the military equipment but not the political will to develop a military to use it. I don’t see how this leads to your conclusion that “Washington doesn't really give it damn about Taiwan Security”. I would think that the US would want to see the ROC take some responsibility for regional issues. And unless the ROC government would request help, which I haven’t heard has happened, why would the US become involved?

          I also don’t see that a comparison between the ROC Navy and the PLAN is the issue; rather it appears to me that the comparison should be between the ROC Navy and its regional neighbors. So the fact that the PLAN has exercised with other foreign militaries is of no consequences.

          If there are commercial interests in Taiwan that feel that the ROC government is not doing enough to “protect their interests” I would expect them to make that a large and public issue to get the ROC government, which has the equipment, to protect those interests. Why did the Taiwanese elect Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) with 56% of the vote if they feel the DPP is unwilling to look after their interests? And Tsai's party, the Democratic Progressive Party, also secured a majority in the legislature, marking the first time that the DPP can govern alone with over a majority.

          Comment


          • #6
            Speaking of Taiwan.

            http://www.rappler.com/world/regions...ampaign=buffer
            "We have no white flag."

            Comment


            • #7
              From Wiki:

              Finlandization (Finnish: suomettuminen; Swedish: finlandisering; German: Finnlandisierung) is the process by which one powerful country strongly influences the policies of a smaller neighboring country, while allowing it to keep its independence and its own political system. The term literally means "to become like Finland" referring to the influence of the Soviet Union on Finland's policies during the Cold War (And the influence of the United States on Mexico's policies as counterpart).
              Taiwan has been effectively Finlandised for years. Still, the KMT on Taiwan have valiantly and steadfastly resisted Mainland bullying, as far as they can, since 1949, particularly in recent decades, and one has to admire that. Ma Ying-jeou being the only notable exception
              Last edited by Kingtoad53; 23 Mar 16, 00:12. Reason: Correct punctuation.
              Mutare vel timere sperno

              Nec Aspera Terrent

              Comment


              • #8
                More PRC nonsense.
                Any man can hold his place when the bands play and women throw flowers; it is when the enemy presses close and metal shears through the ranks that one can acertain which are soldiers, and which are not.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by GMan88 View Post
                  Well, the Taiwan force seem professional enough. While their land army is conscripted, is the same true of their navy?
                  Low ranking sailors yes. Officers are professionals.
                  Nice is heavy on my mind.
                  I pray and wish the best for France.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by PitchRate View Post
                    So your contention is that the ROC has the military equipment but not the political will to develop a military to use it. I don’t see how this leads to your conclusion that “Washington doesn't really give it damn about Taiwan Security”. I would think that the US would want to see the ROC take some responsibility for regional issues. And unless the ROC government would request help, which I haven’t heard has happened, why would the US become involved?

                    I also don’t see that a comparison between the ROC Navy and the PLAN is the issue; rather it appears to me that the comparison should be between the ROC Navy and its regional neighbors. So the fact that the PLAN has exercised with other foreign militaries is of no consequences.

                    If there are commercial interests in Taiwan that feel that the ROC government is not doing enough to “protect their interests” I would expect them to make that a large and public issue to get the ROC government, which has the equipment, to protect those interests. Why did the Taiwanese elect Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) with 56% of the vote if they feel the DPP is unwilling to look after their interests? And Tsai's party, the Democratic Progressive Party, also secured a majority in the legislature, marking the first time that the DPP can govern alone with over a majority.
                    Military is only one of the aspect, which still PLA is much more prepared to deal with international crisis than ROC military, just look at their UN Peacekeeping force operations, antipiracy operation in Africa, and evacuation of Chinese Nationals including Taiwanese from Kuwait, Iraq, Egypt and Libya.

                    Diplomatic Channels are also another dimension. How many countries does PRC has embassy and consulate offices? Compare that to Taiwan? Even those who has sort of diplomatic relations, they are only a quasi consulate office, not an official diplomatic mission. What the hell is American Institute in Taiwan? Quasi State Department semi-official consulate office?

                    Countries like Egypt and Libya, when crisis occurs; who do you think they will answer the phone first, PRC Embassy or Quasi Taiwan Diplomatic Office if there is one? I can tell you as former ROC Citizen myself, in crisis; call PRC Embassy or Consulate Office. They are more likely to have more negotiating power and influence than ROC. And they do answer calls for ROC citizens in crisis to score political credentials with ROC citizens.
                    Nice is heavy on my mind.
                    I pray and wish the best for France.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      It appears to me that all the countries in the South China Sea are in the same situation relative to the political clout of China. I suppose Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Singapore should all petition the PRC to provide them with “protection of their trade”. Or just maybe they all want to remain independent of the PRC.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I hope the Taiwanese under the DPP can stand up to China as much as Taiwan can. The majority of Taiwanese do not want to be forced into any kind of unification with China by force of arms or other means.
                        Mutare vel timere sperno

                        Nec Aspera Terrent

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          PRC military is over blown. Vietnam could fight them well fighting Cambodia. I am not impressed by there hardware or training. Maybe if they spent more time on military training and less learning our great the communist party is they could be better.
                          you think you a real "bleep" solders you "bleep" plastic solders don't wory i will make you in to real "bleep" solders!! "bleep" plastic solders

                          CPO Mzinyati

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