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New Japanese Constitution Debated

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  • #16
    Originally posted by IDonT4 View Post
    Unfortunately, there is very little room for the Japanese military budget to expand. Japan has carried a budget deficit for a a while now. Japan's debt to GDP ratio is over 225% wile China's debt to GDP ratio is less than 25%.

    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/government-budget


    Japan will be the loser if they go with an arms race with China. They have a smaller military budget (China is almost 3 times greater) and Japanese military and equipment are much more expensive (Japanese type 10 tank cost about $11 million each).
    Thanks don. I have been reading about that gdp ratio for a while now, and yet japan seems strangely complacent regarding said ratio. That said, i have also read that chinas debt ratio is actually much higher than 25%? And that a lot of the local government debtors are incapable of repaying their debt to the banks?
    "We have no white flag."

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
      The argument is being made that China cannot play a waiting game, that it is only twenty-odd years from a major economic and social issue created by the polities of the last few decades and declining natural resources, not to mention serious environmental issues.

      In addition, the social stresses placed by the transition from a communist state to something as yet not fully defined, and the various ethnic & religious minorities is another wild card. China was split apart from within in the past, and there are outside factions with a strong interest in destabilizing the PRC. The recent muslim violence is an point in fact.

      Japan doesn't need expansion so much as a doctrinal change which would be made possible by the new Constitution. China is at best a brown-water Navy, and will remain so for at least twenty+ years. Given Japan's technological superiority and the geography, every dollar Japan spends on an effective, modern defense must be met with five to seven dollars of PRC spending.

      China has statistics, but its force projection is very poor. A normalized Japanese military should be fully able to defend their primary islands.
      Thanks arnold. Good points. Just to add, another worrying factor is their demographics as a result of their one child policy. This is bound to strain resources to support their ageing generation.
      "We have no white flag."

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by GMan88 View Post
        Thanks don. I have been reading about that gdp ratio for a while now, and yet japan seems strangely complacent regarding said ratio. That said, i have also read that chinas debt ratio is actually much higher than 25%? And that a lot of the local government debtors are incapable of repaying their debt to the banks?
        The Japanese economy has been stagnant since 1990. The only reason why its large debt burden is not seen as a problem is that most of its debt is borrowed internally (i.e. no exchange rate risk). That means a relatively low debt service burden relative to the overall government budget. The japanese interest on the debt for 2014 was 23 trillion yen, which is roughly 25 percent of the 95 trillion budget. The IMF predicts Japans public debt will be 242 percent of GDP in 2014.

        http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...ond-sales.html

        Secondly, there are different types of government debt. In the US, for example, States and Cities can issue bonds and some of these public entities are unable to pay back (i.e. Detroit). The main reason for this is that the State of Michigan and the Federal government did not bail them out. The same is true for China. I don't know how the PRC central government will handle the local government debt burden. If they do chose to bail them out, they can certainly afford it.

        With regards to China, their debt to GDP ratio for is 22.4 percent. During the height of the great recession, the highest it got was 33 percent.

        http://www.tradingeconomics.com/chin...nt-debt-to-gdp

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by MSGT MSC USAR View Post
          I think you will be shocked what Chinese PLA is capable of. Besides our international station, who else has a space station out there? China. Besides Russian who can lauch a craft to space, who else can? China, we don't even have a space vehicle to the space station right now.

          Why is Japan recruited to deal with China? US Carriers might be in danger if it gets too close to China. The carrier killer is not a myth. The intelligence source indicates that it a ballistic missle that can reach Mach 5 (it's difficult to intercept, but not impossible at Mach 5). What makes the threat creditale is that it's multi warheaded. Once it gets close to the target, it goes ballistic (multi war head). No defense system can stop all of them. This was the report from Pentagon.

          Believe what you will. Maybe in your brain China is still living in Stone Age. Chinese Navy maybe inferior to Japanese, but just size of Chinese Air Force can shadow Japanese Air Defense and the number of medium to long range land based missiles makes them extremely dangerous against Japan, including nuclear capability.
          You're missing the whole point. No one thinks that Japan can (or should) take on China by themselves. The hope is that they'd make a very strong component of an alliance, if need be.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Arnold J Rimmer View Post
            The argument is being made that China cannot play a waiting game, that it is only twenty-odd years from a major economic and social issue created by the polities of the last few decades and declining natural resources, not to mention serious environmental issues.
            Japan is even in a worse boat than China. Their population is actually shrinking and greying. They just imposed an 11 percent sales tax increase to generate tax revenues. That is not a sign of a heathy economy.

            In addition, the social stresses placed by the transition from a communist state to something as yet not fully defined, and the various ethnic & religious minorities is another wild card. China was split apart from within in the past, and there are outside factions with a strong interest in destabilizing the PRC. The recent muslim violence is an point in fact.
            Great point but it is an over blown problem. The authoritarian capitalist system has proven to be much more efficient in dealing with the Great Recession than the democratic capitalist system of the West. They can react faster to crisis and at the right time.

            Secondly, the CCCP is a very strong domestic government and have crack down on dissent very brutally. The only ethnic & religious minority that are showing dissent are the Uyghurs, which have very little chance in sowing discord to the 92 percent Han Majority.

            Japan doesn't need expansion so much as a doctrinal change which would be made possible by the new Constitution. China is at best a brown-water Navy, and will remain so for at least twenty+ years. Given Japan's technological superiority and the geography, every dollar Japan spends on an effective, modern defense must be met with five to seven dollars of PRC spending.
            Now this is just plain wrong. If you haven't been paying attention, the PLAN has demonstrated blue water capabilities for almost 10 years now. It started with the piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden. Prior to that, PLAN were limited to conduction administrative operations outside her littorals instead of combat operations. The most recent exercise they did was to sail past the Sunda Straight and perform military exercise right off Australia's coast.

            Second, you over estimate Japan's technological lead. For example, the backbone of the JASDF is the F-15J. However, the majority of this fleet is still using the Sparrow equivalent missiles, with only a squadron equipped to fire the AMRAAM equivalent missile. Within the next 4 years, the PLAN will lauched 12 052D destroyers, with AESA phased array radars, this vessels along with the 6 052C in service, will give it a 3 to 1 lead in major surface combatants.

            China has statistics, but its force projection is very poor. A normalized Japanese military should be fully able to defend their primary islands.
            Home islands yes, Daiyutai no.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by johns624 View Post
              You're missing the whole point. No one thinks that Japan can (or should) take on China by themselves. The hope is that they'd make a very strong component of an alliance, if need be.
              The problem is that people still think of a WWII type scenario. Such actions will never happen as nuclear weapons make any gains in war moot. What we are left with are battles of position and politics that China is very good at it. Their actions, while individually insignificant, when viewed together, represent a significant gain. For example, they have basically isolated Vietnam and the Philippines from the rest of ASEAN, which relies of consensus to issue as statement.

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Salinator View Post
                I've said this before, there is a western infatuation with Japan built from all that romanticism about their supposed humbleness and their cleverness and warrior culture that adapted to western ways and virtually conquered their know world all within the lifetime of three Emperors. China on the other hand had a massive amount of human fodder that was unfairly used to unfairly dominate their world for 2000 years and even had the nerve to demand tribute from European nations before the Chinese got rid off their wicked and corrupt Emperors. WWII was just a temporary tantrum by Japan, who otherwise had always been on the side of the west in the memory of your everyday American and European. Japanese soldiers fighting to the death was proof of their loyalty and honor, but a million screaming Chinamen throwing the Americans back from the Yalu River was proof of the madness of communism.
                This infatuation also included our own Army Historians who took acoount only from Vinegar Joe and Frank Dorn. If you ever read Frank Dorn (Stillwell's Chief of Staff) events, he had nothing but praise for the Japanese Army, nothing but criticism for the Chinese Nationalist Army.

                I am reading this book "Chinese Nationalism from 1925-1945) from Hans Van de Ven, professor of Chinese Modern History at Cambridge University; just in the introduction section, he criticizes Stillwell and Dorn's Orientalist attutide towards Chinese. He also wrote an entire chapter on Stillwell revisited. The importance of this as first chapter is that American Policy and attitute towards China was all set in stone with Stillwell's account. The One who get his butt kicked in Burma, and blamed Chinese. He had no combat experience, and all the infantry training and experience in Europe was useless in the jungle. We also found that out the hard way did we in Vietnam? His idea of military intelligence in the beginning was attending Japanese Army Press Briefing, following by booz reception offered by his Majesty Hirohito. He appointed his son Col Stillwell as the Chief Intelligence Officer and listened only to Wild Bill Donovan Army intelligence, not SACO (Sino-American Cooperation Organization) headed by Admiral Milton Miles, Naval Intelligence Officer who was a lot more in touch with Chinese Intelligence.

                Stillwill was a tough Infantry Officer under George Marshall, who learned his tactics during WWI in the tranches. The whole American Infantry training at Fort Benning was "the only good defense is a good offense". Stillwell might spoke Chinese, but he knew nothing about Chinese cultural and also whats left in Chinese after 4 years long bitter fights. His attitude was. Chinese was just lazy and just wanting more money. Chinese was fight a war of attrition as planned by General Falkenhausen. The flood in Henen region was the last attempt to slow Japanese Tank advances. This was all planned out by Falkebhausen. It did also caused a lot of deaths of Chinese, but did significantly slowed the Japanese advances. Japanese had Air Superioirty, (Stillwell refused to help the Flying Tigers, General Chennault was a big critic of Stillwell) tanks, and heavy artilleries. Chinese only had left over German, British, Russian, and captured Japanese arms.

                When a small detachment of American was stationed in Chunking, they demanded beef, milk, pigs and chicken. Chinese civilian were starving with famine in Henan and drought. Chiang advisors said to him, we slaughtered all the water buffaloes in 100 miles radius. Out Doolittle Raid might have been a great stunt, but Chinese paid in lives and blood dearly. If you ever read the Doolittle Raid survivors account, Chinese were merciless slaughtered even if they were merely suspicted helping the escape of American Airman.

                As you noted, Chinese fought Japanese 4 years alone, there was not much left out of Nationalists. CKS did communicate to Wang JinWei and head of Chinese Calloration Government in Nanking (like Vichy Gevernment, set up after Japanese occupation); if the Chinese surrenders; what were the Japanese terms. This was not what FDR wanted.
                Nice is heavy on my mind.
                I pray and wish the best for France.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Sounds like "they" want to get right back to the pre-ww2 mindset. Get ready to refurbish the FlaK in pearl harbor.

                  "They" of course means the ruling elite. The average Japanese person seems to be pretty positively minded.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    He also wrote an entire chapter on Stillwell revisited. The importance of this as first chapter is that American Policy and attitute towards China was all set in stone with Stillwell's account. The One who get his butt kicked in Burma, and blamed Chinese. He had no combat experience, and all the infantry training and experience in Europe was useless in the jungle.
                    Stillwill was a tough Infantry Officer under George Marshall, who learned his tactics during WWI in the tranches.
                    I presume the second quote refers to Marshall, not Stillwell? Stillwell apparently did not like the Japanese much either. In his favor, he was given the assignment in China over his personal objections. He had been nominated to command an Army Corps in the North African invasion, so someone had recognized his tactical abilities besides himself.
                    Last edited by lirelou; 15 May 14, 12:35.
                    dit: Lirelou

                    Phong trần mi một lưỡi gươm, Những loi gi o ti cơm s g!

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by lirelou View Post
                      I presume the second quote refers to Marshall, not Stillwell? Stillwell apparently did not like the Japanese much either. In his favor, he was given the assignment in China over his personal objections. He had been nominated to command an Army Corps in the North African invasion, so someone had recognized his tactical abilities besides himself.
                      My Dear Lirlou:

                      Yes, Marshall. Stillwill was Marshall's Protege. That was why when Stillwell had clash with CKS, even FDR thought of replacing Stillwell; Marshall vouched for Stillwell. This bitter relastionship between CKS and Stillwell poisoned the Sino-Ameircan Relationship. Marshall would also not care much for China, as he never had any intention of sending American Troops into China.

                      This maybe Chinese Communist Propaganda, but it maybe true according to Marshall's view. American will never spill blood for Chinese, but willing for Japanese who attacked Pearl Harbor and bowed to the his Imperial Majesty.

                      Chinese Communists killed American during Korean War, as you mentioned in the past "Counter American Imperalism in Assistance of Koryo, as they fear MacArthur were going to attack Manchuria. In Manchuria and Korea, assisting Japanese is not going to make you welcomed, no matter who you are.
                      Nice is heavy on my mind.
                      I pray and wish the best for France.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        This maybe Chinese Communist Propaganda, but it maybe true according to Marshall's view. American will never spill blood for Chinese, but willing for Japanese who attacked Pearl Harbor and bowed to the his Imperial Majesty.

                        Chinese Communists killed American during Korean War, as you mentioned in the past "Counter American Imperalism in Assistance of Koryo, as they fear MacArthur were going to attack Manchuria. In Manchuria and Korea, assisting Japanese is not going to make you welcomed, no matter who you are.
                        Well, Americans never spill blood for anyone who is not American. Our wars are fought in our own interests, and no one else's, just as those allied with us are in the war for their own interests. The sound-bite sounds like bitterness rather than propaganda per se. We did deploy a Marine Amphibious Corps into North China at the end of WWII to stabilize the area and remove surrendered Japanese troops, with the added goal of not becoming involved in a Chinese civil war.
                        dit: Lirelou

                        Phong trần mi một lưỡi gươm, Những loi gi o ti cơm s g!

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by lirelou View Post
                          Well, Americans never spill blood for anyone who is not American. Our wars are fought in our own interests, and no one else's, just as those allied with us are in the war for their own interests. The sound-bite sounds like bitterness rather than propaganda per se. We did deploy a Marine Amphibious Corps into North China at the end of WWII to stabilize the area and remove surrendered Japanese troops, with the added goal of not becoming involved in a Chinese civil war.
                          Of course it's bitterness. Each country of course will fight for their interests, but unfortunately this may put China and US in conflict. Whether this will lead to armed conflict or not, only higher authority knows the future.

                          My father was a trained Chinese Nationalists Infantry Officer. I know you been to Taiwan. Have you ever either been to the War Hero Memorial or seen a military parade? It's near the Palace Museum too. There are ceremonial troopers there. One of the fascinating thing that I learned was Chinese Nationalist still march in the German Goose Marching steps, but yet they wear American Style Steel Helmut. I learned the Goose Steps from my father, and when I went to boot camp at Ft Leonard Wood, learning marching; I had to remind myself that the Nationalist marching steps were actually German, not American; as the Chinese Nationlists Military Training was heavily influenced by German Advisors.

                          What you said are true, and I agree with your assesment. We should only fight for our own benefits.
                          Last edited by MSGT MSC USAR; 15 May 14, 19:28.
                          Nice is heavy on my mind.
                          I pray and wish the best for France.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by IDonT4 View Post
                            Japan is even in a worse boat than China. Their population is actually shrinking and greying. They just imposed an 11 percent sales tax increase to generate tax revenues. That is not a sign of a heathy economy.



                            Great point but it is an over blown problem. The authoritarian capitalist system has proven to be much more efficient in dealing with the Great Recession than the democratic capitalist system of the West. They can react faster to crisis and at the right time.

                            Secondly, the CCCP is a very strong domestic government and have crack down on dissent very brutally. The only ethnic & religious minority that are showing dissent are the Uyghurs, which have very little chance in sowing discord to the 92 percent Han Majority.



                            Now this is just plain wrong. If you haven't been paying attention, the PLAN has demonstrated blue water capabilities for almost 10 years now. It started with the piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden. Prior to that, PLAN were limited to conduction administrative operations outside her littorals instead of combat operations. The most recent exercise they did was to sail past the Sunda Straight and perform military exercise right off Australia's coast.

                            Second, you over estimate Japan's technological lead. For example, the backbone of the JASDF is the F-15J. However, the majority of this fleet is still using the Sparrow equivalent missiles, with only a squadron equipped to fire the AMRAAM equivalent missile. Within the next 4 years, the PLAN will lauched 12 052D destroyers, with AESA phased array radars, this vessels along with the 6 052C in service, will give it a 3 to 1 lead in major surface combatants.



                            Home islands yes, Daiyutai no.
                            I thought the Japanese had a few more Kongo than that.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by craven View Post
                              I thought the Japanese had a few more Kongo than that.
                              The JMSDF has 4 Kongo destroyers (Kongo, Kirishima, Myoko, Chokai). Their main job is to provide theater ballistic missile defense in case of a North Korean missile attack. In this role they are escorted by Akizuki class destroyers.

                              In addition to the Kongo, JMSDF has 2 Atago class destroyers, which serve as command ships for a Japanese destroyer squadron.

                              While the Kongo class and Atago ships may look like the Burke destroyers, they are fundamentally different ships. For one thing, their internal arrangement is vastly different due to different operational requirement (Kongo/Atago -command ships vs Burke - front line destroyers). As such they have "flag" facilities required to command the squadron. Sort of like the Ticonderoga cruisers.

                              Comment

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