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Ukraine Crisis effects in Asia

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  • Ukraine Crisis effects in Asia

    What do you think would be the effects of the current crisis on the situation in Asia.

    1. Will it embolden China in its territorial conflicts with neighboring states?

    2. Russian officials hinted that if the US and EU impose sanctions Russia could nationalize/confiscate the properties of Western companies in Russia. What is the West's exposure from this point of view in China? Isn't it actually bigger?

  • #2
    1) no.

    2) i think bigger, yes, but theres the issue of US bonds being held, too. But even without the bonds, i dont think china is the type to hold anything hostage.
    "We have no white flag."

    Comment


    • #3
      My guess is that the Chinese will try to get whatever political advantage they can from the crisis but by its nature this is a rather regional issue.

      So far the effects on energy prices, for example, have been minimal.

      While China normally argues against foreign involvement in the internal affairs of other states, that ship has clearly sailed. The Russians have staked out a position that leaves the EU and the US with limited counters and it isn't clear that the Chinese would benefit from openly supporting either party.

      However IIRC there are significant numbers of Chinese nationals essentially squatting on land in Siberia. If the Russians can claim the presence of large numbers of their nationals as justification for the annexation of Crimea, will the PRC use that against them at some point in the future?

      - oops -
      Any metaphor will tear if stretched over too much reality.

      Questions about our site? See the FAQ.

      Comment


      • #4
        I don't know about siberia, but I read something about a series of unequal treaties china was forced to sign with Russia. I don't know if that also covers Siberia, or only the area to their northeast. If anything, friction might come from there, but for now I doubt it.
        "We have no white flag."

        Comment


        • #5
          There are some problems with Kazakhstan.
          While this country was quite friendly to Russia,
          there still is a big Russian minority.
          Some provinces of the Northers Kazakhstan, populated
          mostly by Russians, were administratively reassigned
          to Kazakhstan.
          Baikonur space center is also there.
          RF leases it.
          So Kazakhs have a resaon to get concerned.
          Dixi.

          Beware of Occam's razor !!!!

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by GMan88 View Post
            I don't know about siberia, but I read something about a series of unequal treaties china was forced to sign with Russia. I don't know if that also covers Siberia, or only the area to their northeast. If anything, friction might come from there, but for now I doubt it.
            There were a series of treaties, but I am not sure they have anything to do with Siberia. China I think did really care much about Siberia in the old Empire days. That's is the Hans, who were farmers (Siberia is useless as agriculture land). Manchurians and Mongolian Conquest days, they occupied sparsely in Siberia. Only nomads lived in Siberia, and they really never settle in one place. I looked into it, it doesn't seem like officially Siberia belong to anyone until Trans-Siberia raildroad was built.

            The UnEqual Treaties is made the Chinese resent the West (even today is still the case). This led to a series loss of valuable seaports and riverports too. Also Westerner were not subject to the taxation and Chinese laws, including criminal laws. That's why when westerner committed crime, Chinese tends to come down even harder on foreigners.

            Russians mainly gained ports in the Manchuria region.
            Nice is heavy on my mind.
            I pray and wish the best for France.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by RS116 View Post
              There are some problems with Kazakhstan.
              While this country was quite friendly to Russia,
              there still is a big Russian minority.
              Some provinces of the Northers Kazakhstan, populated
              mostly by Russians, were administratively reassigned
              to Kazakhstan.
              Baikonur space center is also there.
              RF leases it.
              So Kazakhs have a resaon to get concerned.
              Very good point! Nice that you brought it up, it reminded me of the SCO shanghai cooperation organization. Assuming russia wanted to do smething similar to kazakhstan, the SCO will ether deter russia, or if i doesnt, it will force on china a moral obligation to step in. Note the three evils in the article.

              http://thediplomat.com/2013/09/the-s...chinas-nato-2/

              The SCO's stated enemies are "terrorism, separatism and extremism,"Â*known collectively as the "Three Evils.”
              And why the obligation for china to step in and try to mediate? The last paragraph says it all.

              At times they seem to exist simply to convince the rest of the world of the group's diplomatic legitimacy and relevance. While the world has the power to gauge the legitimacy, the organization's relevance rests solely with China.
              "We have no white flag."

              Comment


              • #8
                Gman, You're right, it is not Siberia. It is part of the Amur River basin on the Russian side, which was taken from China (originally, ironically, by Cossacks, likely Ukrainian but in Russian service), then retaken by the Chings, who abandoned it as their Dynasty weakened, and was reoccupied by Russia, with more territorial expansion. China recognized it in the treaty that ended the Second Opium War in 1860. Lenin promised it back, but Stalin didn't agree.

                As for this thread, I see no impact upon Asia by Russia re-acquiring the Crimea, particularly since the majority of Crimean residents prefer Russia.\.
                dit: Lirelou

                Phong trần mi một lưỡi gươm, Những loi gi o ti cơm s g!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Thanks for the replies, Msg and lirelou.

                  Looked up the unequal treaties, http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/...Unequal-Treaty

                  Yikes. Talk about bad blood. Fat chance Vladivostok will be returned...
                  "We have no white flag."

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by GMan88 View Post
                    I don't know about siberia, but I read something about a series of unequal treaties china was forced to sign with Russia. I don't know if that also covers Siberia, or only the area to their northeast. If anything, friction might come from there, but for now I doubt it.
                    Yep. Before Japan came knocking on China's door, Russia along with the Western Europeans forced many bad treaties on China in the 19th Century. Getting back Macao and Hong Kong was just the first step. The Chinese Manifest includes one day getting back a lot of Siberia and the Russian Far East including Vladivostok.............which some Russian poster just told me recently that it was discovered by Russians in 1860.

                    China is no slouch at spreading her people around. If the Russians can pull off a South Ossetia and maybe a Crimea, you haven't seen the Chinese yet. Even the Great Putin himself warned Russians in 2002 that if they do not start to populate Siberia and the Far East, they should be prepared to speak Chinese. Americans worry about millions of Mexicans coming across our border, the Russians have to worry about 1.6 billion Chinese. All that deforestation in China for the past couple of centuries, and suddenly Siberia is looking really really good.
                    Prayers.


                    BoRG


                    http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/8757/snap1ws8.jpg

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by MSGT MSC USAR View Post
                      There were a series of treaties, but I am not sure they have anything to do with Siberia. China I think did really care much about Siberia in the old Empire days. That's is the Hans, who were farmers (Siberia is useless as agriculture land). Manchurians and Mongolian Conquest days, they occupied sparsely in Siberia. Only nomads lived in Siberia, and they really never settle in one place. I looked into it, it doesn't seem like officially Siberia belong to anyone until Trans-Siberia raildroad was built.
                      Then you should have looked into the effects of the Trans-Siberian railroad. A TARIFF was imposed on Siberian agricultural products to protect the European Agricultural Industry from cheap Siberian imports. That tariff lasted until before the winds of war. Siberia was and can be agricultural province again. A nomadic culture does not mean absence of agriculture. You think the Mongols conquered Siberia just for fun, and lived only by horse blood?

                      The UnEqual Treaties is made the Chinese resent the West (even today is still the case). This led to a series loss of valuable seaports and riverports too. Also Westerner were not subject to the taxation and Chinese laws, including criminal laws. That's why when westerner committed crime, Chinese tends to come down even harder on foreigners.
                      They resent all those not Chinese. Westerners is small fry to them. They hate more those benefited from their greatness but turned against them..........Japan. They hate those that chose to side with Western Europeans...........Russia (who can't make up her mind whether she wants to be European or Asian) and Japan.

                      China coming down harder on foreigners? She has a long long long memory. Russia is really gonna be screwed, and Japan if possible. USA, she has some found memories of. Great Britain...good luck....

                      Russians mainly gained ports in the Manchuria region.
                      And China will want them back. The day will come when Beijing shall do a "Putin"......but only X 10 in resolution.
                      Prayers.


                      BoRG


                      http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/8757/snap1ws8.jpg

                      Comment


                      • #12


                        Spontaneously Organized
                        Self Defense of Vladivostok.

                        Just for the sake of People Safety.
                        Dixi.

                        Beware of Occam's razor !!!!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          haha... chinese special forces, part of the photo ops for their antipiracy patrols, I believe.
                          "We have no white flag."

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            The effects here in Vietnam: The TV and press are having a busy time translate articles and interviews from RT, Russia Today, to give us infos about the coup d'Etat by the Fascist Anarchist Nationalist Anti Jewish CIA Jewish-funded(this Jewish thing varies from time to time ) Terrorists of Kyiv.
                            For the average Chinese(yeah I read some Chinese), the situation in Ukraine varies from a victory over the 爱美党, Love America Party, which means the Chinese Americanophiles; to Putin teaching his vassal in his backyard; or Russia is just another bully who stole Eastern Siberia from China.
                            Their attitude is mostly "who cares", or they want to see US and Russia fighting eachother.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              If the US and NATO do not exist as a counter point to Russia and China, China and Russia would already be in a Cold War.

                              Comment

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